Saten Kumar

QUALIFICATIONS:

PhD Economics, 2012

MCom Economics, 2007

PGDip Economics, 2006

BEd Economics, 2004

EXPERIENCE:

Head of School, School of Economics, Auckland University of Technology, 2019 onwards

Associate Professor of Economics, School of Economics, Auckland University of Technology, 2015 onwards

Deputy Head of School, School of Economics, Auckland University of Technology, June-December 2018

Founder and Co-Director, Auckland Field Research Consulting Limited, 2014 onwards

Senior Lecturer, School of Economics, Auckland University of Technology, 2012-14

Lecturer, School of Economics, Auckland University of Technology, 2010-11

PROFESSIONAL AFFILIATIONS:

Research Associate, Center for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis (CAMA), Australian National University (ANU), 2014 onwards

Research Associate, Center for Macroeconomics, Massey University, 2018 onwards

Senior Research Fellow, Auckland Center for Financial Research, 2019 onwards

TEACHING:

Macroeconomic Theory and Policy (Honours, M.Bus, PhD)

Introduction to Econometrics (B.Bus. Second Year)

Macroeconomics (B.Bus. Second Year)

Applied Econometrics (B.Bus. Final Year)

Applied Macroeconomics (B.Bus Final Year)

RESEARCH INTERESTS:

Macroeconomics

PUBLICATIONS:

Kumar, Saten., and Wesselbaum, Dennis. "Contracts and Firms' Inflation Expectations." Revise and Resubmit at Review of Economics and Statistics.

Coibion, Olivier., Gorodnichenko, Yuriy., Kumar, Saten., and Ryngaert, Jane. (2021) "Do You Know That I Know You Know...? Higher Order Beliefs in Survey Data." Quarterly Journal of Economics, 136, pp. 1387-1446. NBER Working Paper # 24987.

Coibion, Olivier., Gorodnichenko, Yuriy., Kumar, Saten., and Pedemonte, Mathieu. (2020) "Inflation Expectations A Policy Tool?," Journal of International Economics. 124, pp. 1-27. NBER Working Paper # 24788.

Kumar, Saten.(2020) "Firms' Asset Holdings and Inflation Expectations." Journal of Economic Behavior & Organisation, 170, pp. 193-205.

Kumar, Saten., and Cao Zhaoyi (2020) "Testing for Structural Changes in the Wagner's Law for a Sample of East Asian Countries." Empirical Economics, 59, pp. 1959-1976.

Kumar, Saten. (2020) "Great Recession and the Informational Shifts: New Evidence from Sticky Information Phillips Curve." Applied Economics Letters, 27, pp. 1-4.

Kumar, Saten., and Jia, Pengfei. (2019) "Great Recession and Persistence: Evidence from Sticky Expectations Consumption Growth Model." Applied Economics, 51, pp. 1799-1807.

Coibion, Olivier., Gorodnichenko, Yuriy., and Kumar, Saten. (2018) "How Do Firms Form Their Expectations? New Survey Evidence," American Economic Review, 108, pp. 2671-2713. NBER Working Paper # 21092.

Kumar, Saten. (2016) “Is the U.S. Consumer Credit Asymmetric?” Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 63, pp.194-216

Kumar, Saten., Afrouzi, Hassan., Coibion, Olivier., and Gorodnichenko, Yuriy. (2015) "Inflation Targeting Does Not Anchor Inflation Expectations: Evidence from Firms in New Zealand" Brookings Papers on Economic Activity , Fall Issue, pp. 151-225. NBER Working Paper # 21814.

Kumar, Saten. (2015) "Regional Integration, Capital Mobility and Financial Intermediation Revisited: Application of GETS Procedure in Panel Data,” Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 36, pp.1-17

Paradiso, Antonio., Kumar, Saten., and Margani, Patricia. (2014) “Are Italian Consumer Confidence Adjustments Asymmetric? A Macroeconomic and Psychological Motives Approach,” Journal of Economic Psychology, 43, pp.48-63

Paradiso, Antonio., Kumar, Saten,. and Lucchetta, Marcella. (2014) “Investigating the US Consumer Credit Determinants Using Linear and Nonlinear Cointegration Techniques,” Economic Modelling, 42, pp.20-28

Kumar, Saten. (2014) “Money Demand Income Elasticity in Advanced and Developing Countries: New Evidence from Meta-Analysis,” Applied Economics, 46, pp.1873-1882

Kumar, Saten., Sen, Rahul., and Srivastava, Sadhana. (2014) “Does economic integration stimulate capital mobility? An analysis of four regional economic communities in Africa,” Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 29, pp.33-50

Kumar, Saten. (2013) "Financial Crisis, Taylor Rule and the Fed," Applied Economics Letters, 20, pp. 1557-1561

Kumar, Saten., Webber, Don., and Fargher, Scott. (2013) “Money Demand Stability: A Case Study of Nigeria,” Journal of Policy Modeling, 35, pp. 978-991

Paradiso, Antonio., Kumar, Saten., and Rao, B. Bhaskara. (2013) "A New Keynesian IS Curve for Australia: Is it Forward Looking or Backward Looking?” Applied Economics, 45, pp.3691-3700

Paradiso, Antonio., Kumar, Saten., and Rao, B. Bhaskara. (2013) “Growth Effects of Education in Australia,” Applied Economics, 45, pp.3843-3852

Kumar, Saten., Chowdhury, Mamta. and Rao, B. Bhaskara. (2013) “Demand for Money in the Selected OECD Countries: A Time Series Panel Data Approach and Structural Breaks,” Applied Economics, 45 pp. 1767-1776

Kumar, Saten., and Webber, Don. (2013) “Australasian Money Demand Revisited: Application of Structural Break Tests,” Applied Economics, 45, pp. 1011-1025

Kumar, Saten. (2013) “Systems GMM Estimates of the Health Care Spending and GDP Relationship: A Note,” The European Journal of Health Economics, 14, pp.503-506

Kumar, Saten., Webber, Don., and Perry, Geoff. (2012) “Real Wages, Inflation and Labour Productivity in Australia,” Applied Economics, 44, pp. 2945-2954

Kumar, Saten., and Pacheco, Gail. (2012) “What Determines the Long run Growth Rate in Kenya,” Journal of Policy Modeling, 34, pp. 705-718

Kumar, Saten. and Rao, B. Bhaskara. (2012) “Error Correction Based Panel Estimates of the Demand for Money of Selected Asian Countries with the Extreme Bounds Analysis,” Economic Modelling, 29, pp. 1181-1188

Kumar, Saten., Webber, Don., and Fargher, Scott. (2012) “Testing the Validity of the Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle for Australia,” Applied Economics, 44, pp. 599-605

Kumar, Saten., Webber, Don., and Fargher, Scott. (2012) “Wagner’s Law Revisited: Cointegration and Causality Tests for New Zealand,” Applied Economics, 44, pp.607-616

Singh, Rup., and Kumar, Saten. (2012) “Application of the Alternative Techniques to Estimate Demand for Money in Developing Countries,” Journal of Developing Areas, 46, pp. 43-63

Kumar, Saten. (2011) “Financial Reforms and Money Demand: Evidence from 20 Developing Countries,” Economic Systems, 35, pp.323-334

Rao, B.Bhaskara., and Kumar, Saten. (2011) “Is US Demand for Money Unstable?,” Applied Financial Economics, 21, pp.1263-1272

Kumar, Saten., and Rao, B. Bhaskara. (2011) “A Time Series Approach to Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle with Panel Data for OECD Countries,” The World Economy, 34, pp 473-485

Rao, B. Bhaskara., Tamazian, Arthur., and Kumar, Saten. (2010) “Systems GMM Estimates of the Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle for the OECD Countries and Tests for Structural Breaks,” Economic Modelling, 27, pp 1269-1273

Singh, Rup., and Kumar, Saten. (2010) “Some Empirical Evidence on the Demand for Money in the Pacific Island Countries,” Studies in Economics and Finance, 27, pp 211-222

Rao, B.Bhaskara., Singh, Rup., and Kumar, Saten. (2010) “Do We Need Time Series Econometrics?,” Applied Economics Letters, 17, pp 695-697

Rao, B. Bhaskara., and Kumar, Saten. (2009) “A Panel Data Approach to the Demand for Money and the Effects of Financial Reforms in the Asian Countries,” Economic Modelling, 26, pp 1012-1017

Rao, B. Bhaskara., and Kumar, Saten. (2009) “Cointegration, Structural Breaks and the Demand for Money in Bangladesh,” Applied Economics, 41, pp 1277-1283

Kumar, Saten. (2009) "Structural Breaks and Exports in Philippines,” Global Economy Journal, 9, pp.1-8

WORK IN PROGRESS:

Coibion, Olivier., Gorodnichenko, Yuriy., Kumar, Saten., and Ryngaert, Jane. "Anticipating The Phillips Curve: Firms' Joint Expectations of Unemployment and Inflation." In Progress.

Coibion, Olivier., Gorodnichenko, Yuriy., and Kumar, Saten. "Beliefs Formation of Online Selling Firms." In Progress.

Galimberti, Jaqueson., and Kumar, Saten. "How Do Firms Invest? The Role of Astrological Consultations on Investment Expectations and Decisions." In Progress.

Coibion, Olivier., Gorodnichenko, Yuriy., and Kumar, Saten. "Exploring Uncertainty of Firms." In Progress.

BOOKS:

Kumar, Saten. (2014) “Demand for Money in the Developing Countries: Alternative Estimates and Policy Implications,” Nova Science Publishers, New York U.S., pp. 1-95.

CHAPTERS:

Kumar, Saten and Paradiso, Antonio (2019) “Are Fed Chairmen Adherent to the Dual Mandate? Taylor Rule Estimation Through the Unobserved Components Model” in Albert Tavidze (Ed.), Progress in Economics Research, Nova Science Publishers, USA

Kumar, Saten and Paradiso, Antonio (2019) “Assessing the Sustainability of the Irish Public Debt” in Albert Tavidze (Ed.), Progress in Economics Research, Nova Science Publishers, USA

Kumar, Saten., Pacheco, Gail. and Rossouw, Stephanie. (2013) “Improving Economic Growth in South Africa: An Empirical Analysis of the Determinants of Total Factor Productivity” in Arthur Ramazzotti and Walther Gravina (Ed.), Developing Countries: Political, Economic and Social Issues, Nova Science Publishers, U.S.

PRESENTATIONS, CONFERENCES, AND WORKSHOPS:

Saten Kumar's research has been presented at several places including AEA Meeting, Royal Economic Society Conference, NBER, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, European Central Bank, RBNZ, WEAI, Brookings Institution, RBA , Center for Latin American Monetary Studies, New Zealand Macroeconomic Dynamics Workshop, Sveriges Riksbank, Bank of Canada, Bank of France, CES Ifo, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Southern Economic Association, New Zealand Association of Economists Conference, Society of Economic Dynamics Conference, Princeton University, University of Chicago, University of California Los Angeles and University of California Berkeley, among others.

MEDIA COVERAGE:

Media links to Saten Kumar's research:

Bloomberg, New York, U.S.

"Averting Inflation Crisis Turns on Something Fed Doesn't Control" 1 July, 2021

Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, Virginia, U.S.

"Sentiment and the Real Economy" Speech made by Tom Barkin, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, 15 May, 2019

Project Syndicate, Prague, Czech Republic (also see World PRO News & Ejinsight)

"Central Banks Should Forget About 2% Inflation" 25 July, 2019

Bank of Japan, Tokyo, Japan

"Japan's Economy and Monetary Policy" 5 December, 2018

The Wall Street Journal, New York, U.S.

"The Public's Indifference Is Complicating Central Banks Efforts to Control Inflation Expectations" 12 July, 2018

Central Banking, New York, U.S.

"Communication Strategies Too Weak to Pierce Veil of Inattention" 11 July, 2018

Exchange Traded Funds, New York, U.S.

"U.S. Inflation: the Expectations Game" 28 March, 2016

South African Insurance Times and Investment News, Cape Town, South Africa

"Aligning Monetary and Fiscal Policy" 20 January, 2016

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Washington D.C., U.S.

"Inflation Dynamics and Monetary Policy" Speech made by Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Janet Yellen, 24 September, 2015

European Central Bank, Frankfurt, Germany

"Challenges for Macroeconomic Policy in a Low Inflation Environment" Remarks by Vitor Constancio, Vice-President of the European Central Bank at the ECB Conference, 5 November 2015

Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Cleveland, U.S.

“Monetary Theory and Monetary Policy” Remarks by Loretta Mester, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland at the Fed Cleveland Conference, 12 May 2016

World Economic Forum, Cologny, Switzerland

"How Much Do People Really Know About Inflation" 14 September, 2015

“How Accurate are Companies Inflation Expectation” 15 October 2016

Vox CEPR, London, U.K.

"Inflation Targeting and Expectations" 13 October, 2015

Live Mint, Delhi, India

"Has RBI Decided to Ignore Household Inflation Expectations" 5 October, 2015

The Financial Times, London, U.K.

"Free Lunch: Central Bank Make Bad Jedis" 11 September, 2015

"Era of Low Interest Rates Fail to Generate Expected Growth” 10 September, 2015

"Inflation Targeting Does Not Anchor Inflation Expectations: Evidence from Firms in New Zealand" 10 September, 2015

“Inflation Targeting Central Banks: There’s Bad News” 10 September